Personal Finance
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Financial Projections


  1. Present Value
  2. Capital Budgeting
  3. Sensivity Analysis
  4. How much to borrow?
  5. Ratio Analysis
  6. General Projection Format

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. Present Value

    Net Present Value (NPV) means value of future earning today.Rupee today is worth more than Rupee tomorrow. So, if U r investing Rs.100000/- today and getting Rs.150000/- after a year, then before investing , calculate NPV of Rs.150000/- today .If this value is more than Rs.100000/- , project is worth investing.

    To calculate NPV following is the formula: Expected Value i.e. Rs.150000/- divided by 1 X expected rate of return i.e. if the expected rate of return is 15% on investments figure would be 1.15. So NPV of Rs.150000/- today would be 150000/1.15 = 130434 i.e. more than investment amount of Rs.100000/-. So project is worth investing.

    NPV is important because it helps in evaluating other alternative options of investments.

  2. Capital Budgeting

    Capital Budgeting is very crucial. Return on Capital depends on this.

    Company's Average Cost of Capital =:Debt/(debt plus equity)* rate of return on debt + equity/(equity plus debt)* rate of return on equity

    Changing the mix of equity and debt changes the average cost of capital and return on investments.

  3. Sensivity Analysis

    Due to uncertainty more cganges can happen than will happen.So entrepreneur has to take into consideration what can happen during the course of project implementation. Prepare your forecats taking into consideration various variables affecting your project .

    You have to examine the project under different scenario.Arrive at different break even point under different scenarios.

  4. How much to borrow?

    Debt financing is important advantage under the corporate Income Tax. The interest that the company pays is tax deductible expense.So tax can be saved and that will make cost of debt lessor.There is no tax on retained earnings.

    If your return on capital employed is more than cost of debt, then borrowing more can add to shareholders value.

  5. Ratio Analyis

    Leverage Ratios:Shows how heavily company is in Debt.

    • Debt Ratio = Longterm Debt + Value of Leases / Longterm Debt + Value of Leases + Equity
      (Ratio of Longterm debt as compared to total longterm capital)
    • Interest Coverage Ratio(Times Interest earned) = Earning before Interest & Taxes / Interest
      (No. of times profit is earned compared to total interest liabilities)

    Liquidity Ratios:How easily firm can lay its hands on Cash.

    • Net Working Capital to Total Assets = Net Working Capital(Current Assets - Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
      (Measures company's potential reservoir of cash)
    • Current Ratio = Current Assets/ Current Liabilities
      (Cover of Current Assets over Current liabilities)
    • Quick Ratio = Cash + Shortterm Securities + receivables/ Current Liabilites
      (Immediate cash availability to pay off Current Liabilities)
    • Cash Ratio = Cash + Shortterm Securities / Current Liabilities
      (Most liquid assets to pay off Current Liabilities)

    Profitability Ratios:Judge how efficiently the firm is using its assets.

    • Sales to Total Assets = Sales/ Average Total Assets
      (High ratio indicates better utilisation of firms's assets)
    • Sales to Net Working Capital = Sales / Average Working Capital
      (How hard working capital is put to use)
    • Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold/Average Inventory
      (How fast inventory is turned over. Higher the ratio better it is)
    • Average Collection Period = Average Receivables / Average Daily Sales
      (How quickly cuetomers pays bills-Lower ratio indicates efficiency of Collection Division)
    • Net Profit Margin = Earning Before Interest & Tax(EBIT) - Tax / Sales
      (Proportion of profit in sales figure)
    • Return on Total Assets = EBIT - Tax / Average Total Assets
      (% of return earned on Total Assets)
    • Payout Ratio = Dividend per Share / Earning Per Share
      (Proportion of earning that is paid out as Dividend)

    Market Value Ratios: How firm is valued by investors.

    • Earning Per Share = net profit / No. of Equity Shares
      (Total profit earned per share)
    • Price Earning Ratio = Stock price/ Earning Per Share
      (Price Investors are prepared to pay for each Rupee of earning)
    • Dividend Yield = Dividend per Share/ Stock price
      (% of Dividend as compared to Stock Price)
    • Market to Book value = Stock Price / Book value per share
      (Stock price as compared to Book value of shares)

  6. General Format

    Financial figures for the year ended March 00 & Projections for next three years

    Profit & Loss Account

    Year Rs.in Lacs

    Year IYear II Year III
    Sales - Local/Export 000
    Other Income000
    Total Sales000
    Growth in % 000

    Purchases 000
    Stores/Packing Materials000
    Power & Fuel 000
    Transport Charges000
    Cost of Production000
    Gross Profit000
    Administrative Charges 000
    Selling Expenses 000
    Financial Charges000
    Depreciation 000
    Total Overheads 000
    Net Profit B4 Tax 000
    Taxation 000
    Net Profit after Tax 000
    Net Profit ratio % 000
    Balance Sheet

    Year Rs.in Lacs

    Year IYear II Year III
    LIABILITIES
    Capital 000
    Reserves 000
    Secured Loans 000
    Working Capital from bank000
    Other Loans 000
    Term Loan 000
    Unsecured Loans 000
    Current liabilities
    Sundry Creditors 000
    Provisions 000
    Debt Payable within One Year 000
    Total Liabilities 000
    ASSETS
    Fixed Assets 000
    Investments 000
    Current Assets
    Inventories 000
    Raw Materials 000
    Finished Goods 000
    Stores 000
    Sundry Debtors 000
    Cash & Bank Bal.000
    Loans & Advances000
    Total Assets 000
    Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)

    Year Rs.in Lacs

    Year IYear II Year III
    Net Profit 000
    Add:
    Interest 000
    Depreciation 000
    Income Tax 000
    Total Cash Generation A 000
    Total Interest for the year 000
    Installments of Loan 000
    Total Outflow B 000
    A/B 000
    Average DSCR 0
    Sources & Application of Funds

    Year Rs.in Lacs

    Year IYear II Year III
    Sources
    Net Profit 000
    Depreciation 000
    Increase in Capital 000
    Increase In Reserves 000
    Increase in Term Liabilities 000
    Others 000
    (1) Total 000
    Application
    Net Loss 000
    Decrease in Term Liabilities 000
    Increase in Fixed Assets000
    Dividends 000
    Others Investments000
    (2) Total 000
    1-2 000
    Increase in Current Assets000
    Increase in Current Liabilities000
    Increase in Working Capital Gap 000
    Net Surplus 000
    Increase in bank borrowings 000
    Working Capital Finance Calculations

    Year Rs.in Lacs

    Year IYear II Year III
    1) Current Assets 000
    2) Current Liabilities 000
    3) Net Current Assets 000
    4) 25 % of Current Assets000
    5)Actual Working capital 000
    6) 3-4 000
    7) 3-5 000
    Lower of 6 & 7 MPBF 000


    Also add one sheet on various ratio analysis with explanations.

    All assumptions in making projections to be stated saperately.



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